Albeit a week late, I want to share my 2021 portfolio for documentation purposes and for whoever is interested. I aimed to balance risk in this portfolio with some growth names and legacy plays. Down to brass tacks, I am putting my money in the highest quality companies (in my view) across a diverse set of industries I find attractive. Some of these names are overvalued in the short term. However, I have realized I am not in the business of beating Wall Street’s pricing, but would rather hold high-quality companies that I believe will grow faster that the market in the long term. In other words, I am totally fine paying a short-term premium for growth and quality. Below is a summary of the portfolio and big picture reasoning behind each investment. I'm definitely open to any feedback.
Company
Ticker
Entry Price
Exposure
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF
ARKG
$93.26
6.60%
CrowdStrike
CRWD
$211.82
11.78%
Disney
DIS
$181.18
10.53%
Enphase Energy
ENPH
$175.47
7.98%
Evolution Gaming Group
EVVTY
$101.02
12.77%
Facebook
FB
$273.16
11.05%
Redfin
RDFN
$68.63
10.41%
Teladoc
TDOC
$199.96
9.60%
Sea Ltd
SE
$199.05
14.09%
Waste Connections
WCN
$102.57
5.19%
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS: ARKG) - Invests in companies advancing genomics. The companies held in ARKG may develop, produce or enable: CRISPR, Targeted Therapeutics, Bioinformatics, Molecular Diagnostics, Stem Cells, Agricultural Biology.
Innovative industry. Since 2003 the cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from nearly $3bn to less than $1,000. ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, genomic sequencing will become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce more science into healthcare decision making, enable personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery. ARK estimates that genomic sequencing revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5bn last year to $21bn in 2024.
Cathie Wood. She’s a beast stock picker. Out of all the ETFs she runs, her closest competitor trailed by 60%. Her worst ETF still doubled investors' money. Her strategy is to make investments into companies that she considers incredibly transformational and she has seen success doing it.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) - Cybersecurity technology company that provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyber attack response services.
Best in class technology. Remember about a week ago a bunch of Russian hackers breached SolarWinds? The same hackers also tried to hack CrowdSrike at the same time but were unsuccessful. I’ve wandered on to a bunch of cybersecurity forums, and the general consensus is CrowdStrike has developed the best cybersecurity solution by miles. CRWD is the undisputed leader in cybersecurity.
“Pick-and-shovel” investment into the world’s increasing digitization. Even in the absence of COVID, cybersecurity remains a key component of the world’s increasing digitization as cyberthreats have been an ongoing issue from the onset of the internet. In the last decade we have seen a bunch of hacks where companies have exposed sensitive customer information. It seems companies are just starting to realize the importance of cybersecurity.
Disney (NYSE: DIS) - Worldwide entertainment company that you all are probably familiar with.
Reopening trade. In 2019, parks generated 45% of total operating income for DIS. Full reopening and attendance in parks will be slow, but certainly benefit DIS when it happens. The company has been executing on several other segments in the meantime (i.e. streaming). It has proved competitive, increasing the margin of safety if parks take longer to reopen.
Fast-growing streaming division. DIS has proved agile as it successfully launched a streaming service, Disney+, that has already gained 86mn+ subscribers which was the company’s original 5 year target. This is promising as it shows management can adapt to rapidly changing technology trends.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) - Designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Shift to clean energy; ENPH emerging as market leader. Going into 2021, sentiments towards solar have been at an all time high. This trend is expected to continue, especially after the Georgia run-off results. Solar firms are expected to benefit from extended tax incentives on both the consumer and producer ends.
Technological advantage. ENPH has developed the industry leading solution and is rapidly taking market share from its primary competitor, SolarEdge. Pricing reflects this, but it's expected to continue. Among key competitors, Enphase has been one of the lowest cost producers. Its low-cost structure is a major contributing factor to its improving margins.
Evolution Gaming Group (OTC: EVVTY) - Swedish company that develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated B2B live casino solutions for gaming operators.
Early mover advantage. Evolution’s lack of competition enables it to rapidly grow in new markets and create a loyal customer base, with high switching costs. The company has effectively grown EBITA margins from 41.6% in 1Q18 to 64.8% in 3Q20. Margin expansion is expected to continue.
Massive untapped markets. Europe is estimated to be around $2.5bn (EVVTY has 50% market share), Asian market is ~15x the size of Europe (150% YoY growth for EVVTY in Asia). North America’s market is ~$210mn, a 42% increase YoY, with NJ and PA the only states currently operating (NY looks promising). Management thinks the US will be the largest in the long-term.
Undetected from Wall Street. Evolution has almost no analyst coverage in the US and very minimal coverage in Europe, presenting opportunity for additional growth as institutional money managers recognize this opportunity and draw attention to the stock. Additionally, Evolution has a founder-led management team that is highly aligned with shareholders (mgmt owns over 30% of the stock).
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) - Enables people to connect through devices. It’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus.
Zuck. It’s not a question of who is the next Jobs/Bezos/Gates/Zuck, because Zuck is super young. He has a history of being able to execute: IG acquisition / transition from desktop to mobile / denying multiple acquisition opportunities in his twenties.
Undervalued. FB is the cheapest among the FAANG stocks, yet has some of the highest growth rates. This is mainly because of its continuous political scandals. With Trump out of office, I think FB has a chance to stay out of trouble and start to realize higher multiples. The antitrust lawsuit is not a threat imo, it is actually an opportunity. If the govt forces FB to break up, we would get shares in the spin-offs, which would be valued at a higher multiple than FB. For example, if Instagram spun off from FB and traded at the same multiple as SNAP, Instagram’s market cap would be larger than FB’s.
Digitization of Real Estate (i.e. “iBuying”). Technology in RE is moving from being informational to transactional. Redfin’s iBuying service is dubbed “RedfinNow.” The service basically buys homes from sellers looking for a quick and convenient sale (close deals within 10-30 days). This segment isn’t profitable yet as it is just getting started, but promising as the management adapts to technology trends.
Inter-US Migration and housing outlook. People are moving out of the cities because of COVID / trying to avoid taxes / etc. which increases demand for Redfin’s services. With interest rates extremely low (and no expectation for them to increase), homebuying demand should continue to grow.
RDFN most attractively valued compared to Z and OPEN, with the most upside potential given its market cap ~$7bn. Some are predicting RDFN might start offering rental services as well. RDFN has the best LT margin potential.
Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) - Provides virtual healthcare services on a B2B basis to its clients and provides services to consumers directly and through channel partners.
Competitive positioning in industry ripe for disruption. Healthcare is a huge market yet to be significantly disrupted. COVID has accelerated this disruption. Providers who were once opposed to telemedicine now realize its benefits and several regulatory changes are promising for telemedicines growth potential. Medicare and other government-sponsored coverage is expected to include telemedicine benefits, increasing TDOC’s TAM.
Livongo acquisition. From the consumer POV, this will increase access to healthcare at a lower cost. Teladoc will have access to a larger amount of data it can interpret to refine its services and monetization strategies.
Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE) - Digital entertainment, electronic commerce, and digital financial services. The Company operates three business segments: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMonkey. The Company’s digital entertainment business, Garena, is a global game developer and publisher with a presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America. Garena provides access to mobile and personal computer online games. Shopee provides users with a shopping environment that is supported by integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, and other value-added services. SeaMonkey business is a digital financial services provider. SeaMonkey offers e-wallet services, payment processing, credit related digital financial offerings, and other financial products.
Diversified consumer internet company with market-leading position. Sea caters to Southeast Asia and Taiwan, providing its online gaming, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Shopee has overtaken competitors, it is widening its market share lead. ESports is a rapidly growing market (15.7% YoY to $1.1bn in 2020) and Sea is outpacing market growth.
Pay for quality. The best companies keep going up for years in a row, and I think Sea is in the early stages of being classified as such a company. It’s worth $100bn but has effectively proved its ability to identify opportunities and expand business lines.
Still early stages of developing its consumer banking business, so we get the security of a bigger, established company with upside for an additional, lucrative business line such as fintech.
Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) - Waste services company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services.
Recession resilient; re-opening trade. The waste management industry is recession resilient, it will always be around.
Non-hazardous waste collection. With a progressive government likely to push climate initiatives, recycling and non-hazardous waste collection are likely to benefit on the back end.
WCN has a large moat; there isn’t much of a competitive threat the way the industry operates. Management’s strategy is to generally only spend what FCF is available. This enables the company to make acquisitions while handling its debt load. Great for stable growth.
P.S. I have two other accounts - one with about 40 growth stocks and another with about 10 big names / ETFs. However, this portfolio has the largest allocation for 2021. My first time trying a more concentrated approach.
West Virginia Online Casino Finally Goes Live As DraftKings Launches
“With a surprise launch, West Virginia has just become the fourth US state with legal online casino gambling alongside New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. DraftKings was the first operator to go live with a WV online casino, announcing its app is now available for both iOS and Android devices in the state. News came in the form of a brief press release issued Wednesday afternoon. DraftKings Casino is also available as a standalone app in PA and NJ, as well as embedded into the DraftKings Sportsbook platform in all three states. Michigan online casinos will additionally go live either later this year or early in 2021, where DraftKings has a path to market under a tribal partnership.” https://www.onlinepokerreport.com/43397/west-virginia-online-casino-live-with-draftkings/
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
Disclaimer: This in no way is intended to represent CCP and or CSM members. It is clearly a shit post and probably not a very good one at that. Please don't ban me CCP. CSM 14 3 Mar 2020 There was a tense feeling in the air as the room was being filled for the CSM leadership AMA. This one had all the major decision makers from CCP/PA and the CSM knew this was a meeting that would be the most important of the summit. CCP Hellmar starts the meeting off with a round of introductions and ends with a small prepared speech. CSM 14, As your well aware Eve online is not doing well in the post blackout stages. We have consistently lost PCU and DCU numbers for the last several years and it seems like PA is looking to minimize the losses. We are going to be relying on you guys to help us transition to a state in which we can all win eve finally. I know this may come as a shock to you, but after PA finally made it through the new tutorial they have decided that we can not be trusted to make another game. All they kept talking about was how bad the UI is, what is this default overview, why do I need to have a 3rd party app/website for everything in this game, why does TiDi suck and finally the dreaded question of why does the rorqual have excavators. As you and most of the rest of the eve players know, CCP doesn’t play eve. We were completely unprepared to answer questions about the actual game play. Of course I tried to segue the conversation to Planetary Interaction but they were uninterested in the amount of button clicks it took. We also tried to discuss PVE but they kept saying they don’t want to stare at red crosses all day. Alas, after 20 minutes of fumbling through ship balance questions like why is the munnin still the meta ship, why do T2 BS cost as much as a dread but aren’t worth it, why certain ships aren’t flown while others are over used, and the normal ramblings that Eve Online players constantly complain about, they found out our biggest weakness. That we don’t actually know what we are doing. We even used the standard POS Code excuse, I mean eve players have always bought it. So it is with my largest regret (and profit) that I must inform you that we will be looking to transition eve online to eve offline (please go outside you fucking neckbeards) in the near future. I’m sure you guys have tons of questions and we have absolutely zero answers so let’s get this AMA started. Obviously shocked by this statement the CSM has been left speechless, except one. CSM Omeca Gold starts audibly regurgitating stats about supers dying in delve and how the small gang communities can see Eve through. Of course, other CSM members at the table are feverishly checking RMT prices of plex. The multidollar empire must survive. While the last of them just looked on in utter disbelief. After a few short minutes, the one true eve online hero raises his voice. Vily: What if we start a nullbloc war? CCP Hellmar: We have specifically made this game into empire building and a friendship machine. I mean look 3 timers for a structure and a damage cap, it’s pretty clear what we were doing. We are not looking to destroy the empires and the friendships we have made. I mean just look at me for instance I have 400 million green friends from this game and I would like to keep them. Vily: No, I’m serious. What if Test joins up with PL and goes after goons? Aryth and Merkelchen in unison: Yes, that will drive plex prices up. We can even sound the horn of Goondoor and bring old players back from the dead. That will save our precious multidollar empire. Gobbins: I don’t know Vily, I’ll reach out to PL but we all know those guys won eve a long time ago. It will be like waking a sleeping paper tiger with a steak. They could eat the steak or they could eat you. Sort Dragon: I say we just let the game die. It’s had a good run and I’m tired of structure bashes in the AUTZ because everyone time zone tanks. Vily: Well sort, your opinion is as irrelevant as your alliance. Guess I fuck better than you fight wars. Omeca Gold: Can you imagine how many supers will die in delve? It will be glorious. Vily: Omeca why is it always about supers dying in delve with you? Anyway, we need a badass name for the PL, Test, PH, Frat, NC. Coalition. Also, we need an amazing name for this war. We need something that screams to all eve players, this is the war of a life time. This is the war to end all wars, an extermination, a hell war. Merkelchen: We also need a reason. Exookiz: Let’s start off with the coalition name. I was thinking Pandemic Please Ignore. Dunk Dinkle: That hits a little close to home for us Americans. Vily: Yeah Dunk your probably right. CCP Hellmar, are you even paying attention. Hellmar: Umm yeah, sorry I was just showing Pearl Abyss Planetary Interaction steps. They don’t seem to understand how enjoyable it is. Vily: We are trying to come up with a name for our coalition. Got anything useful to add? Hellmar: How about .....Pearl...Abyss......Planetary... Interaction. That will show them how awesome PI is and how all of Eve loves how many times you have to click the same damn planet. We can call it P.A.P.I. For short. Vily: We can leave it on the drawing board and see what everyone else comes up with. Anyone else? Aryth: You guys can sort that out later, what are we going to call this war. I mean the casino war didn’t ring true to a lot of eve, so we need to pick a good name. Steve Ronuken: How about The New Eden Armageddon? Both because it represents what happens if this doesn’t work, but also because if all the bees die it will be an Armageddon. Innominate: Just got off the phone with Mittens. He said the wars on but the name is WWB because there has never been a WWB before. Vily: Alright look that’s a terrible name Innominate We can agree to disagree about the war name and coalition name for now. I just talked to PGL and Creecher. PGL just said: We BETTER have a sub cap fight too. Aryth: And Creecher? Vily: He said: I’M GOING TO CUM. Vily: Now what about a public reason. Dunk: Vily, blame it on goons for dropping on us from a nip citadel. Legacy is getting super tired of that shit. Vily: You know what, we will just end the nip give goons plenty of time to get ready publicly and get this war started. Goons, how soon can you be ready? Aryth: We need time to replace our stockpiles. How about 3-4 months? Vily: Sounds great, July 4th? Aryth: Sure, great. Vily: Hellmar, hows that sound? Test is starting a massive war and we will save eve. You will have more players logging in than ever. Hellmar: Yeah, that sounds great. Sorry I was looking at the abyss stuff. We can push back the full scale invasion like we were planning on using to shut the servers off for a few months to see if this is going to work. Just got off the phone with PA. They said you have to be looking at record breaking fights by the end of 2020 or it’s over. Vily: 1DQ BY CHRISTMAS THEN BOYS!!! The exterminator has arrived. Edit: spelling issue.
DKNG has seen huge gains this week, mostly focused on Tuesday and today, Thursday. Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news: on Tuesday afternoon a presser with Gary Bettman was announced and on Thursday it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not move back down at all after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t seem to have much impact on other sports betting stocks either. Both of these events point towards something that seems obviously clear: DraftKings’ stock is hugely overpriced, but seems to keep being driven up just by trading. I think there are cases to be made for short term bull or bear, and for long term bear. I’m already in on the long term bear case with Nov ‘20, Dec ‘20 and Jan ‘21 Puts that have all taken a beating, but debating what the profitable short term play is. For some context, I used to trade bonds on one of the biggest desks in NY, but moved to be closer to family a while ago and run my own business. My state is not supported by DraftKings, so keep in mind when reading that I am a bit salty towards the company and their ability to sniff out VPNs. Been a long time lurker here, but this is my first post. The company’s Q1 earnings was pretty enlightening and quite the spin job. I was shocked to see the stock rise that day after what I read to be a pretty poor outcome. Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but seeing no growth in net revenue despite 30% growth in gross revenue means that the company has a growth problem, in other words almost all the revenue growth was driven by giving away free bets and reducing vig. Let’s look further at revenue growth though. I found it very interesting that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DraftKings, which makes up about 75% of New DraftKings revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not 30% - spin job. The company also gave us an interesting insight into coronavirus’ impact on their business, maybe unintentionally. At Old DraftKings, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ‘19, that’s big. However, we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, you can see your way to revenue post-March 10th being down 95%. A similar look at SBTech’s drop from +19% to only +3% means revenue post-coronavirus is down at least by half. Another interesting lens to use in looking at the company is how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced five months ago in December. On slide 22 they compare their valuation to a variety of comps, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to alleviate the fact that the valuation for DraftKings was about 4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. I’m going to ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because adjusting a forward looking multiple based on your own forward looking growth projections is absolute garbage, and instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comps. At $39 per share, DraftKings has a market cap a bit over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million, giving them a revenue multiple of 33.7x. For those of you that haven’t been around the block a few times, that is outrageously high. The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best comp is probably Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, trades at 7.8x. DraftKings deserves a higher multiple than Flutter given that they are pure-play USA vs Flutter which has a lot of retail european revenue that isn’t high growth, but the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel being a direct comp to DraftKings with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you said DraftKings should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, which is being very generous, that implies a share price of only $13.50. I know what you’re going to say: “this is all about more states allowing sports betting.” Fine, let’s look at what would need to happen at the state-level to get DraftKings’ current valuation to be reasonable. Going back to the December investor presentation, DraftKings estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3 billion given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. That let’s us back into $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s then give them a 30% bump on that for iGaming. Using the company’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x) that means they need $1.28 billion of revenue, or $831 million more than they currently have. $831 million more revenue needed means they need 14% more of the population to legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none are going to add any population, with PA already online, NY choosing retail-only and the other three being no where close to legalization and widely considered by researchers and lobbyists to be years away. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Don’t get started on nationally legalized sports betting, no one is even pushing for that and it is never going to happen. The SCOTUS repeal of PASPA was as much about taking away the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like allowing or disallowing sports betting as it was about sports betting itself. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but it is going to be a state-by-state slog. Another thing to consider is what the company might do with its highly valued stock. As we saw with Tesla a few months ago, a big run up in stock price is a great time to do some financial maneuvering. I think there are two very good options for management right now. The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DraftKings barely tapped the big institutional investors. A follow-on would be a great way to load up the coffers further - anyone that watched TV in 2015 knows they love to spend money on ads - at a very attractive valuation for the company. The problem with this is that new shares coming in, or the follow-on pricing poorly, could be a big drag on the current share price. Another option might be a little less obvious, but I think could make a lot of sense for the company: Buy William Hill. William Hill currently has a market cap of about $1.5 billion. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DraftKings previously tried and (largely) failed to enter, are a big threat to DraftKings’ DTC approach in the US and have the tech that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DraftKings could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DraftKings would add a ton of revenue, could cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across geographies and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace WillHill’s outdated tech with their much better apps. The big downside is that the CEOs of the two companies seem to really dislike each other. One reason that I think the stock could be up so much since the “IPO” is that there are a very small number of liquid shares. Remember that this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, meaning that a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than would be in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could be a huge driver in the stock gain. Circling back to be three cases for what I think could happen: - Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it - Short term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company - Long term bear: Correction to a more realistic valuation, bulls taking gains, any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020, financial maneuvering by the company, Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint/are eye opening, any blip to the NFL cash cow, NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season delays, lockup ending in October Just giving my two cents on how I’m looking at this and trading it, and curious to hear any other thoughts or theories on real reasons why the stock is moving and where it is going. Last thought: for those of you that like DraftKings at this price, you should LOVE Flutter at this price.
The three most played solitaire card games in the world
WHICH GAMES ARE THEY? The main reason that traditional playing cards first spread across the world is due to their primary use: for playing card games. But you don't need others to play card games, courtesy of solitaire card games. These have existed for decades, going back as far as the 19th century. But there's no doubt that the arrival of the personal computer into office spaces and homes has had an enormous impact in introducing these classic games of patience to the masses, and in popularizing them. Arguably the single biggest reason for this is Microsoft. Microsoft first began packaging a simple version of Klondike Solitaire with their operating systems with Windows 3.0, which was the third major release of Microsoft Windows, and came out in 1990. At the time, desktop computers had only just become a staple in homes and work-places. Part of the rationale for including a solitaire card game was to assist new users in learning how to use a mouse, and to help them become familiar with features like dragging and dropping, and the overall graphical interface of a personal computer. As Microsoft continued delivering new versions of their Windows operating system in later years, a couple of other solitaire card games were added, notably Spider and FreeCell. This development single-handedly revolutionized office-culture around the world. It's a little known fact, but sources within Microsoft have stated that Solitaire is in fact the most used software program in the entire Microsoft family, even ahead of programs like Word and Excel. At the time, it even led to debates about whether introducing computers into the workplace would actually decrease productivity, due to real concerns that Microsoft Solitaire was leading to many hours of time wasted by employees. https://preview.redd.it/yw9nk8tvdmc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=338bc8b84aaac968213494c002299ea9152872f3 What accounts for this tremendous success? First of all, digitizing what was already a popular game meant that it removed the practicalities and constraints involved in using a physical deck of cards. By eliminating the hassles of shuffling, dealing, and physically moving cards, and taking away the requirement for a reasonable amount of table space, all the book-keeping and tedious elements of the game were instantly eliminated. Now solitaire card games could be played much more quickly and easily. Software versions also created new opportunities for the game that didn't previously exist. Digital implementations made it possible to record percentages of wins, best times, and win streaks, all of which give additional incentives to return to the game. They also made possible forms of the game that - for logistical reasons - would be difficult or impossible to play in real life with a physical deck. Digital versions of solitaire were also easier to learn, given the enforced rules, automated layouts, and instructional tutorials that typically accompanied them. And of course, solitaire has an addictive quality about it, given the inherent challenge of trying to win from a deal. Being able to easily and quickly play a game of digital solitaire makes it a highly attractive time-filler. Despite the advent of flashier and more impressive games, people keep returning to the simplicity of dragging cards around for a quick five or ten minute fix of Solitaire. But this also explains how the three most played solitaire card games in the world accomplished this status. As Microsoft Windows was slowly conquering the world and asserting its monopoly on the global market of operating systems and personal computers, their versions of solitaire were the ones that became firmly established into homes and offices. So we have Microsoft to thank for making Klondike the solitaire game that nearly all of us are familiar with. For many people, this is the game that they identify "Solitaire" with. With Microsoft adding Spider and FreeCell in later years, these two games were quickly adopted and became beloved by solitaire fans as well, causing them to leapfrog many other classic solitaire games in popularity, and make them the most commonly played versions of solitaire behind the evergreen Klondike. With the release of Windows 8 in 2012, this trilogy of titles was rebranded under the name "Microsoft Solitaire Collection", as part of an ad-supported freemium package that also included two new solitaire additions: Pyramid and TriPeaks. While there are many other classic solitaire games that exist and are played around the world, in terms of the sheer number of games played, Microsoft's holy trinity of Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell unquestionably reigns supreme. As proof of its success, Microsoft Solitaire was inducted into the World Video Game Hall of Fame in 2019, alongside other greats like Doom, Donkey Kong, Tetris, Super Mario Kart, World of Warcraft, and The Legend of Zelda. To get there, it had to meet criteria that included being widely known and remembered, having enduring popularity, and not only influencing other games but culture in general. It's estimated that it has been installed on over a billion devices, localized in 65 different languages, and is considered to be instrumental in paving the way for the growth of the casual game market. https://preview.redd.it/x2473u9ydmc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=059922b3200f4e0d679ab3b8ed61ebc623a3857a Of course today there are many more ways to enjoy these popular solitaire greats. Besides apps for your mobile device, all you need is a web browser, and sites like Solitaired.com enable you to play them for free online wherever you are in the world, as long as you have an internet connection. Besides dragging and dropping cards with the click of a mouse on your personal home or office computer, touch screens have only helped to increase the number of ways you can play solitaire, especially on mobile devices. So let's take a closer look at the three most popular solitaire card games. KLONDIKE Overview: Klondike is the solitaire game most of us will be familiar with from our personal computer, or that we've seen bored staff playing in the office. It's the quintessential solitaire card game that everybody should at least try once, and is the game most people have in mind when they think of "solitaire". Its name has its origin in the late nineteenth century gold rush in the Klondike part of the Canadian Yukon, where prospectors would play the game in order to help pass the time. It sometimes goes under other names like Canfield (in the UK), although this latter name is technically incorrect, and actually refers to a different solitaire game. Game-play: Using a single deck, the aim is to arrange all 13 cards of each suit in a complete sequence from Ace through King. These sequences begin with the Ace as the foundation and build upwards, hence games like this are typically described as builder type solitaire games. Cards are placed in an area called the tableau, and the initial deal involves laying out seven piles, ranging from 1 to 7 cards on each, and with only the top card of each pile turned face up. These cards can then be arranged within the tableau by building downwards in alternating colours, and moved between columns to in order to access other cards. Only a King or column built down on a King can be transferred to a free space in the tableau. Unlike an open game where all the cards are visible and face-up from the start of the game, Klondike is an example of a closed game, because not all the cards are known, and slowly become revealed as you make them available. Variations: The most common way of using the stock is to deal three cards at a time, but many people also play with an alternative rule in which you deal one card at a time, which is sometimes called Las Vegas Solitaire, and even played as a gambling game in some casinos. This gives you access to many more cards and increases your chances of completing the game successfully. To make the game harder, you can also limit the amount of passes through the deck to just three times, or only once. My thoughts: Depending on which variation you're playing with and how many redeals you allow, a skilled player should be able to win standard game of Klondike nearly half of the time. It is very satisfying to finish a game and get all the cards onto the foundation, but be warned, because it's also very addictive! Once you're familiar with how the game works, you can polish off an entire game in as little as five minutes, making it an ideal choice for a casual game to keep returning to. It's also a game you can get better at, and for some excellent suggestions on improving your strategy, check out the article 7 Strategies to Win Solitaire. https://preview.redd.it/kqy0hgm6emc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42a61300151e622f01739680d0cd37c9d5c6ba3e Related games: If you want an easier Klondike style game that you should be able to win nine times out of ten, try Westcliff, which has ten columns; or Thumb and Pouch. There's also the easier two deck version of Klondike called Double Klondike, as well as Gargantua and Harp; while the two deck game Lady Jane is even easier yet, and you should be able to win 99% of the time. If you enjoy Klondike and want to try similar games, variations worth trying include Agnes Bernauer and Agnes Sorel. Easthaven adds a tricky Spider-like method of dealing the stock, while Blind Alleys and the closely related Pas Seul use a 6x3 tableau. Many other Klondike-inspired builder games exist which change more significant things about the game-play. One of the more popular ones is Yukon, in which the entire deck is dealt at the outset, and where you can move columns of cards even if the cards being moved aren't in sequence. This gives you easier access to cards, but the columns consist of more cards to begin with. Two players: For a version of Klondike that enables you to play competitively with another player using two decks of cards, take a look at Double Solitaire. Players have their own deck and tableau, and the aim is to be the first to play all your cards to eight foundations piles which are shared. As well as turn-based play, this can also be turned into a real-time race game of frenzied simultaneous solitaire. SPIDER Overview: One of the two games that lurks most closely in Klondike's shadow is Spider. Along with FreeCell, it has risen into prominence courtesy of Microsoft Windows, and chances are good that you've seen a version of it on your home computer along with other common games like Chess, Minesweeper, Hearts, and Spades. It is said to be a favourite of president Franklin D. Roosevelt. Many consider it to be the best solitaire game since it gives a lot of room to overcome the luck of the draw by skillful play, and comes with a good chance of winning the game. According to Gregory Trefry's Casual Game Design, by 2005 it had outstripped Klondike and become the most played game on computers that had Microsoft Windows, largely due the increased challenge it offers over the more luck-based Klondike. Game-play: A game of Spider uses two decks of cards, and the game starts after dealing out 54 cards out in a tableau of ten piles. Like Klondike, the aim is to get cards of the same suit in order from Ace through King, but in this case there are no foundations. Columns of cards remain in the tableau until you line up a whole column of a suit in order, descending from King down through Ace, at which point they are removed from the game. Cards can be moved within the tableau in a somewhat similar fashion to Klondike, but whenever you need fresh cards, the 50 cards remaining in the stock are dealt out 10 at a time across the entire tableau. Variations: In the standard form of the game, which is the hardest way to play, you play with all four suits, and while descending columns of alternating colours can be built, you can only move a stack if they are all of the same suit. This is generally considered the more Advanced form of the game, while an Intermediate form of Spider uses two suits and makes the gameplay easier by only using Spades and Hearts. The one suit game only uses cards from a single suit, and can be considered the beginner version, and serve as an excellent introduction to Spider. Officially all spaces in the tableau must be filled before dealing from the stock, but a more relaxed form of the game is possible by removing this requirement. My thoughts: Unlike Klondike, in Spider all the building happens within the tableau, so that immediately gives it a different feel. Winning Spider, especially in its standard form, can prove quite a challenge. But it's also one of the best solitaire games in view of the analysis and skill it allows for. New players should begin with one suit Spider, and you can always progress to the more difficult and strategic versions later. Single suit Spider is easily winnable most of the time, and is a more relaxing way to play. But even an easier game of Spider will take two or three times as long as a game of Klondike. While taking longer to play, it gives more room for skill and thoughtful play, and comes with the reward of increased chances of completing the game successfully. Microsoft's versions of Spider incorporated a scoring system, so that players could use "undo" in order to discover hidden cards and use this to determine their choices, but with a small point penalty. https://preview.redd.it/nmgcto1aemc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a80aea462f885f3f6ce642c9161c44d16e909ac5 Related games: Given the popularity and success of Spider, many other solitaire games exist that take over its basic concept, such as Mrs Mop, which has all the cards dealt face-up at the outset, and Beetle. Tarantula and Black Widow both make Spider easier by allowing you to move sequences in the tableau that are of the same colour (Tarantula), or of any colour (Black Widow). Spiderette is a single-deck version of Spider, and uses just seven columns Instead of ten, which are dealt out in a triangular style much like Klondike. Like the standard game, the way the cards are dealt can play a big role in whether or not a particular deal is solvable. Other common one-deck Spider games include Will o' the Wisp (which has a 7x3 tableau) and Simple Simon. Special mention should be made of the popular game Scorpion, which allows stacks to be moved within the tableau even if they aren't arranged in order, in the style of games like Yukon. It's not easy to win, however, and the Wasp variation increases your chances significantly by allowing any card or stack to be placed in an empty space in the tableau, not just Kings. Three Blind Mice is another favourite Scorpion variant, and uses a 10x5 tableau. FREECELL Overview: FreeCell emerged out of relative obscurity in 1995 as a result of its inclusion in Microsoft Windows 95. Even though it was created by Paul Alfille already as early as 1978, it was only when it was brought into the public eye with the help of Windows, that it quickly became an addictive pastime for many, and gained a loyal following. Just a few years later it was included along with Minesweeper in the chapter "Computer and Online Games" of the published version of Hoyle's Rules of Games. Fan websites were even created for it with information about the different deals, and strategies. Game-play: At the start of the game, a single deck is dealt face up into eight columns. There are four foundation piles, and as in most solitaire games, the goal is to build cards from each suit in ascending sequence from Ace through King. But in addition to these foundation piles, there are four storage cells that can be used to temporarily store a card from the bottom of any column, and that's where the real fun of FreeCell lies. Cards in the tableau are arranged down in alternating colours, and such sequences can be moved between columns - but only with the help of available cells - while a space created in the tableau can be filled with any card. Variations: FreeCell has inspired many variants and related game, which are too many to list. Several of these are true to the basic concept, but simply increase the number of cards in the game. For example, there is also a two-deck version called FreeCell Duplex. There is also a version with three decks and one with four decks. My thoughts: FreeCell has the distinction of being a solitaire card game that lends itself particularly well to a digital implementation. In the Windows version, each unique deal was assigned a different number, nearly all of which were solvable, and people could use this number to attempt the same deal as other players. The computer could also calculate which moves were possible and which were not. While later versions came with over a million unique deals, the original Microsoft FreeCell supported 32,000 numbered deals, dubbed as the "Microsoft 32,000". In the hey-day of FreeCell in the mid 1990s, a crowdsourced project assigned all these deals to different people, successfully completing all but one of them. Given that all the cards are visible at the start of the game, FreeCell is an open game and you have perfect information to work with from the outset, so there are no surprises awaiting you. Winning requires sheer skill, and there is very little luck. https://preview.redd.it/sdpdz9rcemc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ad1347423b051900ca92b1bacdc1e5f28ba1808 Related games: FreeCell has among its ancestors Eight Off and Baker's Game. In both games you build down in the same suit instead of in alternating colours. Eight Off gives players the added advantage of having more storage cells to use. It was the novel use of alternating colours that helped make FreeCell a big success, but these two predecessors are also very good. Given its tremendous popularity, FreeCell has inspired many other games of its kind, many with small twists to the setup or rules. One popular take on this style of the game include Art Cabral's excellent Seahaven Towers, which has a different starting layout. Also highly recommended is David Parlett's Penguin, which has seven reserve cells, and gives you three of your starting foundation cards but buries the fourth one at the bottom of the first column in the tableau; this is the "penguin" that you must free. CONCLUSION The above three solitaire games can all be described as builder-type games, and there are many other builder-type solitaire games that have been inspired by them or are related to them. The most popular ones besides the trilogy covered here include: Baker's Dozen, Beleaguered Castle, Canfield, Forty Thieves, La Belle Lucie (Lovely Lucy), Scorpion, and Yukon. Each of these games is in turn a representative of its own family of games that provides variations of the same theme. So it's worth trying each of these other titles too, to determine which ones you especially enjoy playing, and then exploring further within each family. But despite the tremendous diversity, these three reign supreme: Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell. Nearly everyone who has had a Microsoft Windows operating system on their computer at some point in their life will be familiar with one or all of these three solitaire games. This is particularly going to be true of those who were the early adopters of personal computers in homes and offices. Those who found themselves behind an office computer in the 1990s, lived in an era when video games weren't nearly as advanced, impressive, or varied as what they were today. This was a time when social media didn't yet exist, and when the world wide web consisted largely of text based websites that were accessed with slow dial up modems. In this environment, solitaire was the ideal companion for a lonely and boring day behind the computer, and a welcome distraction. The positive reception of Klondike, Spider, and FreeCell by this audience, has ensured that these three brands of solitaire will continue to have an enduring legacy, far beyond what even Microsoft ever imagined when first making them our friends. Almost 30 years on, these solitaire games have already stood the test of time, and will undoubtedly continue to be enjoyed by future generations. Where to play them?Head to Solitaired.com and try a game ofKlondike,Spider, orFreeCell! https://preview.redd.it/agaaitzfemc51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dadb71579e685996511dd1e9bcf6f2cc0e768fcc Author's note: I first published this article at PlayingCardDeckshere.
How I earn a Full-time income online + Offers & More
So first start by saying I have "Real" Online work but it requires me to work about 30 mins a day... I work on this other stuff 8-10 hours a day and earn a full-time income alone from this stuff alone... I'm not including any affiliate signs ups I get when I say earning a living from this I highly advise you get a cheap Laptop to work on... You cant use your phone ( for the work stuff ) I would recommend something like a Thinkpad 430i, I'm pretty sure I bought one for £85 as I needed a cheap laptop for something else and its been solid normally they come with dud batteries, You can find a replacement HERE Appen|non-ref ( I will get $25 if you work I think its 100 hours )
Payout Method - Payoneer
Minimum payment - $5
By far the best site in terms of pay for time, I highly recommend you sign up and apply for every project they have, I currently work 2 and from time to time they have one of task... You can get projects which pay $25-$30 an hour but most pay $14... You are paid monthly and you will normally agree to work 10 hours per week
They offer a lot of different Tasks some ranging from 0.04 to $3 per task Some can be completed Once or thousands of time - I highly Advise signing up for this site - Make sure you fill out your profile in full and make sure their emails are not going into your spam folder
The best way to make money on Clickworker is through UHRS - Once you have signed up, Click on Assessments on the top bar and take the test, This is the best way to earn on here. Some of the basic tasks without UHRS can also pay Decent sometimes.
By far (In my opinion) The best survey site in terms of consistent pay, Make sure your Profile is always at 100% ( I also always have a tab open with this so I can grab them right away)
Populus Live
Payout Method - Cheque
Minimum Payment - £50
They pay by check once you reach £50 and its sent monthly, Normally they pay between £1-£4, I normally get 2-4 surveys per day I would say
GG2U $1 Bonus | non-ref ( No Bonus ) - I will get 5% of what you earn
Payout Method - Paypal
Minimum Payout - $7
I do the $1 or $1.25 surveys
Timebucks(I think $1 bonus) | Non-Ref ( No Bonus ) - I will earn 15% of what you earn
Payout Method - Bitcoin, Transferwise + Others
Minimum Payout - $10, They pay every Thursday
I would normally do the Yoursurveys .75 surveys here but they pay $1 on GG2U But I have had good luck with Revenuewall and Flapbuck surveys and some can pay pretty decent... The site looks terrible and they used to have Paypal but removed it... I use this only when I have nothing else to do... One of the things, I have had the most luck on here in terms of not getting DQ ( This was one of the first I started using )
Panelbase - Sign up HERE ( Quidco £10 Bonus )| Non- Ref ( No Bonus ) - Quidco will pay you £0.80p to sign up and if you sign up through my link you will also get a £10 bonus on Quidco when you reach £5 cashback Some decent surveys on here, I normally check and do them when they are over £1 I mainly focus my time on Appen, If there is no work on Appen then I will see if there are tasks on Neevo if not then I move to the other sites... I only use the lower-paying survey sites when I have nothing else to do I still do have something that guaranteed you money regardless, So even if I have a slow do saying this there is no pressure because my other work is there. This past week happen has been slow for me but I was able to smash out thousands of tasks on Neevo which made that up ----- Here is also some good offers on a few different sites, They should be the highest paying for that offer TopCashBack - REF (£5 BONUS ) | NON-REF( NO BONUS) You will get the bonus once you reach £10 payable cashback Once you have signed up, here are the offers They also have a £15 Cashback on a Just Eat order of £15, Worth it for some free food Betfair Poker - £50 Cashback for signing up and playing £10 of poker | £10 Spend GiffGaff - £10 Cashback - Order and activate a new sim, The Cheapest package is £6 SearchLoto - £0.82 - Create your account, Make 25 Searched, and use Free Ticket. Experian - £3 - Sign up for a new account Graze - £2.47, Order your first box then cancel when it arrives Totally Money - £2.10 - Make an account and get a free credit report Tastecard - £3.30 - Free 2 Months trial Booking buddy - 2p ( Can do 3x per day ) - Make a search. Quidco - REF ( £10 Bonus ) | NON-REF ( NO BONUS ) Bonus is once you reach £5 cashback Azimo - £25 Cashback - Make a Minimum Transfer of £151 ( Send the transfer to your other account ) Paddy Power Games £20 Cashback - Deposit and wager £10 Panelbase - £0.80p - Create an account and do a survey ( I highly recommend using this site ) Pick My Postcode - £.80p - Create an account. booking buddy - 2p ( Can do 3x per day ) - Make a search. ---- Swagbucks - REF ( Around £4 BONUS ) | NON-REF ( NO BONUS ) To get the £4 bonus you need to earn 300SB in your first month, Since the offers at the bottom I would do the two offers listed, Then make the rest up by doing 3/4 Surveys but other than this please do not waste your time on Swagbucks doing surveys, I only do them if to complete swago or if they are pretty high paying. AyeT- CyberGhost VPN Free Trial - 54SB Adgem - Norton VPN Free Trial - 63SB 100SB Bonus - Install the Swagbutton Rise of Kingdoms - 4000SB - Get to hall Level 17 Lottoland - 1300SB - Click the offer and it will take you to the sign-up and will cost £1 ( Make sure auto-renewal isn't on ) ----- GG2U - REF( I think you get $1 Bonus ) | NON-REF ( No $1 if there is a bonus ) William hill ( Find this under Gaming Offers ) - Deposit £10 and wager £10 - Around £27 Back Normally the Gala offers pay higher but none of them are available anywhere, Normally pay around £40, on TCB or Quidco but they have no offers right now for them --- Ysense - REF( Don't think there is a bonus |NON - REF Click Offers, Then Offertory Final Fantasy 100K Power - $10.16. I did this before and I spent £1 and completed really quickly, It was an XP reward I bought, It gave millions of Hero XP which gave enough power I highly advise you don't waste time on this site doing surveys ---- Lionbridge - Like happen but this is more strict and I also found Appen paid more for the Project I am on. Teamwork- Like Appen and Lionbridge, I have done some work for them in the past everything was fine and paid on time. Apple at Home Advisor - Work at home Advisor for Apple. Pretty sure they send you an iMac to work on tho I could be wrong Pretty sure Amazon has remote work also. If you google a company and then "Remote" or at home, It should let you see if they have work - I had these 3 on a list Its transcription work but Appen, Lionbridge, and Teamwork offer this and probably best going for them. Rev transcribeme GoTranscript ---- Sites/Apps that are legit + my thoughts on them Swagbucks ( Around £4 Bonus ) | non-ref ( No Bonus ) I only do offers on here but I always check other sites before doing them to see if better paying elsewhere and I do swago when it comes up - Do not do surveys unless they are offering a few £ as they normally DQ - Only do Offers, Don't waste your time on anything else Serpclix| non-ref You install the plugin and it pops up with a task to search for a website... I barely use it but I would say its worth using for some extra cash ( Some users say £10-£30 a month on here ) Branded Surveys| non-ref Had a few payouts, Too many DQ would avoid unless nothing else Life Points Had some decent paying surveys, But too many DQ.. I would personally avoid Qmee ( 50p Bonus ) | non-ref ( No Bonus ) In my opinion, it's not worth the time, I do probably 1 or 2 surveys per week and I only touch the ones 75p + unless they take to long... I don't think you should focus anytime on it unless you have nothing else. Ysense Don't waste your time, I listed an offer for it above other than them offers.. Don't bother, People only want sign-ups to this cause they pay like 15% of earnings and I think around £5 when someone reached a certain amount SliceThePie- Don't bother, Its clearly about 10p an hour HoneyGain ($5 Bonus I think ) | Non- Ref ( No Bonus ) It uses your unused internet in the background, it's perfectly safe personally for me I've not had much luck but it comes down to location and how many devices you are using 20Cogs ( £20 Bonus on cashout ) | Non-ref ( No Bonus ) This is legit but most offers do pay better elsewhere and you need to hit 20 confirmed cogs before they payout, I have done offers on here and have my 20cogs pending but make sure you always check other sites to make sure you are getting the most amount of profit... I mostly do offers on here that I have not seen anywhere else. PrizeRebel - Don't waste your time. Microworkers - Can pay decent if you can rattle off some fast task but - Its a pain to get paid, Customer service pretty much ignores you and a lot of the jobs and links are sketchy as hell --- I know nothing about this stuff but you can also teach English online and get paid for it. You might need an ESL certificate. The pay is pretty decent if you can get work If this is something you are interested in I highly advise you do some research for it because its decent work vipkid- Teach English to kids online, If you want to find more I would advise you to look through Reddit as a lot of users on here use this for work, There are more sites than just this that you can work for, I think they pay from $15-$25 per hour. QKid- Same as vipkid teaching English online- I think this pays up to $20 per hour gogokid- Teach English Online $14-25 per hour There will be more sites than this but these are the ones I know of. ---- Amazon FBA I don't recommend you bring crap in from china there is enough of that,,, My advise would start small, Start by Buying stock from Supermarkets or other online retailers this is called retail arbitrage and then sending that in but make sure you are allowed to sell in that category, also if your going down the video game route that you sell Used video games and older back catalog titles as these hold higher profit margins than new stock, Lego, Toys, etc are good things to keep an eye out for you can also look for this sort of stuff on the Facebook market place There is very little profit in new stock unless you can pick it up and most of the time you'd be selling at a loss because the big retailers can sell it for the price you buy it Use Amazons courier ( they use ups) it's like £5 to send in a 15KG Box Get the hang of it to figure out what works for YOU! Don't follow anyone on youtube and what they say to do... Of course, if you want to make serious money which you can do, You will need to get suppliers, etc but no one will tell you where to get these, and the ones found easily through google search will make you very little if any money using... Here is also some things I recommend using ( I use them or have used them ) Barcode Scanner ( I only use my PC so need scanner ) Barcode Scanner With Stand Epson XP-3100 FBA Labels Bags - I use a mixture of different one but these are fine for smaller things. You don't need to buy the best printer or anything like that these work perfectly fine... You only need that stuff if you're doing thousands of labels per day As I said before, Don't be scared to try this its actually pretty fun and can make good money just please people on youtube UK and US, Try it see what works for you Also Amazon handmade but I still think Facebook is a great way to start selling handmade stuff ( if its quality ) - Gambling First, I recommend you don't touch anything to do with this stuff if you have any mental health problems, feel lonely, etc this can ruin your life if you go off the deep end Matched Betting - You can make good money from this and I think everyone should do it, It's not complicated once you get the hang of it but don't use Profit Accumulator or the other one that charges £17 a month, in my opinion, it isn't worth it ... You could use something like Team Profit to get the hang of it and then take the £1 profit accumulator trial then get more info from there but cancel before the £17 month The more money you have to do this the more you're going to make, It can be pretty slow if you are starting with a low amount of money but when you're doing these, Make sure you check cashback sites or offerwalls to see if they will pay you for signing up People promote PA because they have a good affiliate program Gambling CPA/RS This is different and you need a website or social media platform, You would have deals with the casinos, Bookmakers, etc But the money, if you get it right, is absolutely ridiculous... This is why you see these guys on youtube spinning such high amount of cash on the casino, If you are good at building sites or have a boatload of cash to chuck at this You would post them and when people sign up through your link you could be on CPA ( Cost per Acquisition ) RS= Revenue share, So you would get % of a player losses or you could be on a hybrid This money is life-changing if you get it right but since there is so much cash it is not easy... These sites are spending 10s of thousands a month to be at the top search results. ---- Cashback Websites JoinHoney | non-ref - Saves you money by searching for coupon codes, I place a monthly order on a website and it saves me between 20-40 each time, Well worth installing when you shop online TopCashBack (£5 Bonus ) | nonref ( No Bonus ) £5 Bonus once you reach £10 payable cashback, I listed some good deals at the top of the post ( Check yourself for more on the site ) Also can save money when shopping online Quidco (£10 Bonus) |non-ref ( No bonus ) You get the £10 bonus once you reach £5 cashback, Same as top cashback... Some offers listed above and you can also get cashback shopping online -- My favorite Offer Xendpay (£10 Bonus | non-ref( No bonus ) Sign up and Verify your account, Make a transfer of £100 and you will get £10 free.. You can just transfer the money to yourself but you will need an account that takes euros as you need to send £ to euro - Before you sign up to an offer on this sub, Please check on cashback sites to see if they pay more than a ref link, Example is the Azimo link it has been posted on this sub on the past few days, You only get £10 from that but you will get £25 through Quidco + £10 bonus if you are new to the site There is also a scam that's posted a lot on Reddit, They claim to pay you $25 to sign up then $25 per person you sign up, This is a scam they go by a few different names sites all look the same with the same fake payouts I hope this helps someone out.
West Virginia Online Casino Finally Goes Live As DraftKings Launches
“With a surprise launch, West Virginia has just become the fourth US state with legal online casino gambling alongside New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. DraftKings was the first operator to go live with a WV online casino, announcing its app is now available for both iOS and Android devices in the state. News came in the form of a brief press release issued Wednesday afternoon. DraftKings Casino is also available as a standalone app in PA and NJ, as well as embedded into the DraftKings Sportsbook platform in all three states. Michigan online casinos will additionally go live either later this year or early in 2021, where DraftKings has a path to market under a tribal partnership.” https://www.onlinepokerreport.com/43397/west-virginia-online-casino-live-with-draftkings/
DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way. The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further. I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half. Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons. At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50. No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state. Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
What do you think of my commentary on DraftKings (DKNG)?
DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way. The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further. I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half. Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons. At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50. No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state. Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
Virgin/Trop online NJ Blackjack Money Maker circa 2017?
okay so I just want to know if anyone else was aware of this. Before you get too excited, unless they are total idiots, this doesn't work anymore. And if it does and the casino is actually open (Tropicana Atlantic City), have at it. Just make sure you let me know. So, there was a promotion when you would originally download either the Virgin and/or Tropicana casino apps. These apps were really only for people in the NYC/NJ/PA area because to collect winnings you had to go to the window at the Trop. So, you create a new account, one on each app. You have to put in your SSN and show yr ID at the window so no fake names. But you do get to tell people who sent you and although the account that sent you would probably get closed down after awhile, they still got tons of free online gambling money for every person who wrote their name down. Now, you would go to 7-11 and get a Money Gram for $200 because these two apps were simultaneously running promos where your first $100 spent playing black jack was returned to you. This is the glitch: When you play one $100 hand of black jack, whether you lose, win, or get 21, the $100 goes into your account. So you could make, between the 2 sites, $600. The worst case is you would break even. You could collect the $200 (one from trop, one from Virgin), $400 (winna winna chicken dinna) or $600 (21.21.) at a specific window in the Tropicana casino. My friend and I did this with over 400 people: turning them on to it, keeping half their winnings because without us they wouldnt win anything at all, often fronting them the money. Does it still work? I'm scared to look. Is this frowned upon or brilliant? Me, I say brilliant because all the casinos not only have the advantage but it's been proven that they take advantage of glambling addicts by using slot machine algorythms that help put addicts in "the zone" where the dopamine is flowing and OH! So close! Almost Won! and have found, when it comes to slots at least, that when someone gets an "almost" (really, no such thing but that's kind of obvious) that their brain reacts in the exact same way it would if they had gotten a "win" that time: same lighted pathways, same release of same amount of chemicals, same addictive stuff. So, no, I don't feel bad. And if you think I should, walk through the AC bus station one day and then tell me how you feel about it.
Tutorial Sukses Slot Jackpot Raup Ratusan Juta Rupiah
Slot Game Online Indonesia Tingkat berhasil slot jackpot di dalam tempat pertaruhan formal casino raih ratusan juta rupiah, nyatanya faktor berikut amat di idamkan oleh seluruh pemain khususnya pada Asia. Slot game online Indonesia sekarang menjadi salah satu permainan taruh tertepat, di mana dalam saat ini dia sukses mendiami game live casino pada provider terlaris serta terbanyak sedunia. Serata permainannya betapa mengasyikkan lagi memanjakan penglihatan sampai sangat nyaman bagi para players di dalam memainkannya, selintas hampir ibarat permainan anak kecil, akan tetapi mestinya hiburan bettingan tak di benarkan terhadap anak dibawah umur ok. Pada perjumpaan kali ini kami akan berbicara bagai mana trik unggul mesin slot bonus jackpot secara mudah, pada ini aku semacam tempat judi online benar hendaknya menggandeng kalian hingga kejalan yang benar.
Panduan Cara Untung Slot Mesin Bonus Jackpot Dana Terkejut
Agen kami menyiapkan berbagai permainan mengasyikkan yang bisa kalian mainkan dengan simpel, pada permainannya kalian cukup mengantongi aset sebesar dua puluh lima ribu saja. Pakai modal minim kalian telah bisa betting sepuasnya dan membuahkan keberhasilan withdraw luber, seluruh mainan tertulistercantum ringan mewujudkan jackpot didalamnya. Lalu metode ekspres supaya enteng menimbulkan suatu nilai jackpot dalam permainan slot ialah sambil mengetahui macam mana tahapan mesin slot jackpot lebih dahulu, seperti sebagai berikut : *. Model Mesin Klasik Buat ragam slot mesin berbentuk slot joker tua ialah slot mesin tertua pada histori game game slot mesin, meskipun klasik akan tetapi slot mesin tersebut terus selaku dambaan hingga masa ini, saat ini, sekarang, waktu ini, disebabkan mempunyai jumlah bonus jackpot yang sangat ringan didapatkan. -. Jenis Mesin Multi Payline Game Slot Mesin berbentuk multi pay line ialah baru atas slot mesin ragam tempo, slot mesin berbentuk multi membayar garis lazimnya mempunyaimenyandang sepuluh mencapai tiga puluh dua image, tetapi multi payline memiliki cukup berlimpah pay line lagi bentuk lebih menakjubkan. A. Mesin Slot Versi Video Slot Game Diperhatikan pada sisi digital kian luas, kini mesin slot menjumpai perubahan kian elusif lagi yaitu sambil memunculkan mesin slot jenis vidio games, mempunyai kemenangan mesin metode ilmiah, seluruh alat yang dilakukan dengan tangan dialih menggunakan pentol maju. 4. Mesin Slot Jackpot Varian Maju Terus pelahiran terbelakang yang terus diserbu oleh penggemar judi slot yakni oleh variasi progresif, manakala memiliki langkah unggul slot games hadiah dan jua bentuk serta karakteristik yang sungguh hebat serta juga tingkat benar-benar padat. Setelah memahami segala macam disertai kegunaan mesin slot game, lalunya kamu hendak betul-betul gampang mempraktikkan gamesnya, akan tetapi andaikan berdialog persoalan bonus jackpot lalu tak mempunyai manuver pas apa-apa. Pada Saat menginginkan sebuah kelebihan akibat dari mendapatkan jumlah jackpot slot, sampai kini tidak dipahami cara istimewa dalam melakukan nya, akan tetapi pada ini lah aku mau membeberkan dikit perkataan dari petinggi judi menggauli aturan pas yang mesti dipahami jikalau ingin dapat salah sebuah jumlah bonus jackpot : #. Pengetahuan Berjudi Segenap cuman dibutuhkan pemahaman disaat saja, semakin tua anda berjudi slot terbaik maka tentu semakin penuh pula pelajaran kamu mengenai maksud lalu cela game ini. *. Menunggukan Tempo Tepat Artinya untuk anda dapat bersabar dalam menjalankan permainan, awal bermain ada baiknya lirik lebih dulu taruhan yang lagi lagi bergerak di sekitar, sedemikian itu bakal mempersembahkan dikit cela bagi bisa bermain kian pas lagi. • Uang Memenuhi Saat berjudi slot casino mestinya kamu mengharuskan modal awal pada memainkanya, agen awak menyiapkan modal yang rendah untuk kalian yakni hanya cukup sebanyak 25 ribu saja, namun tampak bolehnya seandainya menggandeng uang simpanan karen jikalau menemui kesialan kamu terus bisa bermain. -. Betting Bettingan Berperingkat Pada website slot online para pencinta judi butuh berawas-awas selama memberikan adu peruntungan, dikarenakan jikalau menyimpang langkah jadi bakal mencapai kegagalan. dicoba segera bermain dalam bettingan tipis terlebih dahulu, asalkan angin telah bagus, barulah maju ke taruhan lebih besar. Itulah tahapan terutamanya sehingga musti dilakukan asalkan mau mendapatkan menimbulkan mendapatkan salah sebuah kemungkinan tutorial slot online slot online jackpot sampai mencapai puluhan juta dengan terus menerus. Permainan slot game online dimainkan dengan jujur, nggak ada campur kuasa orang ataupun robot di dalam bettingnya, slot game formal ini di mainkan dengan menerapkan keberuntungan dari player. Seandainya demikian maka trik utamanya yakni member musti memang ketat saat bertaruh, dan mempunyai kesabaran segera masih normal di dalam bermainnya. Seumpama sedemikian itu maka saran pentingnya yaitu player perlu paling cermat di dalam main, dan mempunyai ketegaran untuk tetap stabil di dalam bermainnya. Seperti berikut saya hendak mengasihkan terbatas langkah bermain game slot online kegunaannya selaku memperkuat pikiran didalam betting, yakni secara memahami kegunaan alat apa aja yang terdapat di mesin slot casino online.
Memahami Kegunaan Pentol Pada Game Slot Mesin
Awal bermain slot online ada baiknya seandainya kita tahu lebih dahulu apa aja manfaat dari setiap tonjolan yang tercantum pada mesin slot game, perihal ini fokusnya aku luruskan kepada para pemain baru. #. Pay line adalah sebuah sistem yang bermanfaat semacam penentu keseluruhan nilai kelebihan. • Scatters berfungsi seolah-olah cadangan manfaat dari lambang payline. 3. Wild menjadi suatu karakteristik yang berguna untuk menggantikan manfaat dari simbol scatters. 4. Bonus jackpot yakni suatu mesin istimewa yang sangat dinantikan oleh para penyayang judi slot. *. Gambel saat ini merupakan simbol spesial karena fungsinya yang mampu menggandakan uang. *. Fitur adu nasib berguna semacam membett beberapa sisa saldo yang ada. #. Free spin masa ini sebagai suatu simbol yang berfungsi untuk menggerakkan deretan line. Sebagaimana begitulah bervariasi jenis-jenis simbol juga fungsinya masing-masing, setelah anda memahaminya dengan bagus, bolehnya kalian mampu mendapat dengan simpel. Mungkin hanya hingga disini pembicaraan awak menerpa teknik beruntung mesin slot jackpot tembus milliaran rupiah, untuk mampu memainkannya terus aja buat formulir pendaftaran dibawah ini. Salam Hoki :). Kontak Layanan Customer Service : Line : NUSAWIN88 WhatsApp : +855976742251
Making a Full Time income online (UK) + Offers + Money Bonuses
So first start by saying I have "Real" Online work but it requires me to work about 30 mins a day... I work on this other stuff 8-10 hours a day and earn a full-time income alone from this stuff alone... I do not include any ref links or other affiliate sign-ups I get. I highly advise you get a cheap Laptop to work on... You cant use your phone ( for the work stuff ) I would recommend something like a Thinkpad 430i, I'm pretty sure I bought one for £85 as I needed a cheap laptop for something else and its been solid normally they come with dud batteries, You can find a replacement HERE Appen|non-ref ( I will get $25 if you work I think its 100 hours )
Payout Method - Payoneer
Minimum payment - $5
By far the best site in terms of pay for time, I highly recommend you sign up and apply for every project they have, I currently work 2 and from time to time they have one of task... You can get projects which pay $25-$30 an hour but most pay $14... You are paid monthly and you will normally agree to work 10 hours per week
They offer a lot of different Tasks some randing from 0.04 to $3 per task Some can be completed Once or hundreds of time - I highly Advise signing up for this site - Make sure you fill out your profile in full and make sure their emails are not going into your spam folder
The best way to make money on Clickworker is through UHRS - Once you have signed up, Click on Assessments on the top bar and take the test, This is the best way to earn on here. Some of the basic tasks without UHRS can also pay Decent sometimes.
By far (In my opinion) The best survey site in terms of consistent pay, Make sure your Profile is always at 100% ( I also always have a tab open with this so I can grab them right away)
Populus Live
Payout Method - Cheque
Minimum Payment - £50
They pay by check once you reach £50 and its sent monthly, Normally they pay between £1-£4, I normally get 2-4 surveys per day I would say
GG2U $1 Bonus | non-ref ( No Bonus ) - I will get 5% of what you earn
Payout Method - Paypal
Minimum Payout - $7
I do the $1 or $1.25 surveys
Timebucks(I think $1 bonus) | Non-Ref ( No Bonus ) - I will earn 15% of what you earn
Payout Method - Bitcoin, Transferwise + Others
Minimum Payout - $10, They pay every Thursday
I would normally do the Yoursurveys .75 surveys here but they pay $1 on GG2U But I have had good luck with Revenuewall and Flapbuck surveys and some can pay pretty decent... The site looks terrible and they used to have Paypal but removed it... I use this only when I have nothing else to do... One of the things, I have had the most luck on here in terms of not getting DQ ( This was one of the first I started using )
Everything above this is what I use almost every day unless I have a lot of work on Appen I just keep on that Panelbase - Sign up HERE ( Quidco £10 Bonus )| Non- Ref ( No Bonus ) - Quidco will pay you £0.80p to sign up and if you sign up through my link you will also get a £10 bonus on Quidco when you reach £5 cashback Some decent surveys on here, I normally check and do them when they are over £1 ----- Here is also some good offers on a few different sites, They should be the highest paying for that offer TopCashBack - REF (£5 BONUS ) | NON-REF( NO BONUS) You will get the bonus once you reach £10 payable cashback Once you have signed up, here are the offers They also have a £15 Cashback on a Just Eat order of £15, Worth it for some free food Betfair Poker - £50 Cashback for signing up and playing £10 of poker | £10 Spend GiffGaff - £10 Cashback - Order and activate a new sim, The Cheapest package is £6 SearchLoto - £0.82 - Create your account, Make 25 Searched, and use Free Ticket. Experian - £3 - Sign up for a new account Graze - £2.47, Order your first box then cancel when it arrives Totally Money - £2.10 - Make an account and get a free credit report Tastecard - £3.30 - Free 2 Months trial Booking buddy - 2p ( Can do 3x per day ) - Make a search. Quidco - REF ( £10 Bonus ) | NON-REF ( NO BONUS ) Bonus is once you reach £5 cashback Azimo - £25 Cashback - Make a Minimum Transfer of £151 ( Send the transfer to your other account ) Paddy Power Games £20 Cashback - Deposit and wager £10 Panelbase - £0.80p - Create an account and do a survey ( I highly recommend using this site ) Pick My Postcode - £.80p - Create an account. booking buddy - 2p ( Can do 3x per day ) - Make a search. ---- Swagbucks - REF ( Around £4 BONUS ) | NON-REF ( NO BONUS ) To get the £4 bonus you need to earn 300SB in your first month, Since the offers at the bottom I would do the two offers listed, Then make the rest up by doing 3/4 Surveys but other than this please do not waste your time on Swagbucks doing surveys, I only do them if to complete swago or if they are pretty high paying. AyeT- CyberGhost VPN Free Trial - 54SB Adgem - Norton VPN Free Trial - 63SB 100SB Bonus - Install the Swagbutton Rise of Kingdoms - 4000SB - Get to hall Level 17 Lottoland - 1300SB - Click the offer and it will take you to the sign-up and will cost £1 ( Make sure auto-renewal isn't on ) ----- GG2U - REF( I think you get $1 Bonus ) | NON-REF ( No $1 if there is a bonus ) William hill ( Find this under Gaming Offers ) - Deposit £10 and wager £10 - Around £27 Back Normally the Gala offers pay higher but none of them are available anywhere, Normally pay around £40, on TCB or Quidco but they have no offers right now for them --- Ysense - REF( Don't think there is a bonus |NON - REF Click Offers, Then Offertory Final Fantasy 100K Power - $10.16. I did this before and I spent £1 and completed really quickly, It was an XP reward I bought, It gave millions of Hero XP which gave enough power I highly advise you don't waste time on this site doing surveys ---- Lionbridge - Like happen but this is more strict and I also found Appen paid more for the Project I am on. Teamwork- Like Appen and Lionbridge, I have done some work for them in the past everything was fine and paid on time. Apple at Home Advisor - Work at home Advisor for Apple. Pretty sure they send you an iMac to work on tho I could be wrong Pretty sure Amazon has remote work also. If you google a company and then "Remote" or at home, It should let you see if they have work - I had these 3 on a list Its transcription work but Appen, Lionbridge, and Teamwork offer this and probably best going for them. Rev transcribeme GoTranscript ---- Sites/Apps that are legit + my thoughts on them Swagbucks ( Around £4 Bonus ) | non-ref ( No Bonus ) I only do offers on here but I always check other sites before doing them to see if better paying elsewhere and I do swago when it comes up - Do not do surveys unless they are offering a few £ as they normally DQ - Only do Offers, Don't waste your time on anything else Serpclix| non-ref You install the plugin and it pops up with a task to search for a website... I barely use it but I would say its worth using for some extra cash ( Some users say £10-£30 a month on here ) Branded Surveys| non-ref Had a few payouts, Too many DQ would avoid unless nothing else Life Points Had some decent paying surveys, But too many DQ.. I would personally avoid Qmee ( 50p Bonus ) | non-ref ( No Bonus ) In my opinion, it's not worth the time, I do probably 1 or 2 surveys per week and I only touch the ones 75p + unless they take to long... I don't think you should focus anytime on it unless you have nothing else. Ysense Don't waste your time, I listed an offer for it above other than them offers.. Don't bother, People only want sign-ups to this cause they pay like 15% of earnings and I think around £5 when someone reached a certain amount SliceThePie- Don't bother, Its clearly about 10p an hour HoneyGain ($5 Bonus I think ) | Non- Ref ( No Bonus ) It uses your unused internet in the background, it's perfectly safe personally for me I've not had much luck but it comes down to location and how many devices you are using 20Cogs ( £20 Bonus on cashout ) | Non-ref ( No Bonus ) This is legit but most offers do pay better elsewhere and you need to hit 20 confirmed cogs before they payout, I have done offers on here and have my 20cogs pending but make sure you always check other sites to make sure you are getting the most amount of profit... I mostly do offers on here that I have not seen anywhere else. PrizeRebel - Don't waste your time. Microworkers - Can pay decent if you can rattle off some fast task but - Its a pain to get paid, Customer service pretty much ignores you and a lot of the jobs and links are sketchy as hell --- I know nothing about this stuff but you can also teach English online and get paid for it. You might need an ESL certificate. The pay is pretty decent if you can get work If this is something you are interested in I highly advise you do some research for it because its decent work vipkid- Teach English to kids online, If you want to find more I would advise you to look through Reddit as a lot of users on here use this for work, There are more sites than just this that you can work for, I think they pay from $15-$25 per hour. QKid- Same as vipkid teaching English online- I think this pays up to $20 per hour gogokid- Teach English Online $14-25 per hour There will be more sites than this but these are the ones I know of. ---- Amazon FBA I don't recommend you bring crap in from china there is enough of that,,, My advise would start small, Start by Buying stock from Supermarkets or other online retailers this is called retail arbitrage and then sending that in but make sure you are allowed to sell in that category, also if your going down the video game route that you sell Used video games and older back catalog titles as these hold higher profit margins than new stock, Lego, Toys, etc are good things to keep an eye out for you can also look for this sort of stuff on the Facebook market place There is very little profit in new stock unless you can pick it up and most of the time you'd be selling at a loss because the big retailers can sell it for the price you buy it Use Amazons courier ( they use ups) it's like £5 to send in a 15KG Box You need to start, Get the hang of it to figure out what works for YOU! Don't follow anyone on youtube and what they say to do... Of course, if you want to make serious money which you can do, You will need to get suppliers, etc but no one will tell you where to get these and the ones found easily through google search will make you very little if any money using... Here is also some things I recommend using ( I use them or have used them ) Amazon handmade is also good ( That's if you make stuff ) Barcode Scanner ( I only use my PC so need scanner ) Barcode Scanner With Stand Epson XP-3100 FBA Labels Bags - I use a mixture of different one but these are fine for smaller things. You don't need to buy the best printer or anything like that these work perfectly fine... You only need that stuff if you're doing thousands of labels per day As I said before, Don't be scared to try this its actually pretty fun and can make good money just please people on youtube UK and US, Try it see what works for you - Gambling First, I recommend you don't touch anything to do with this stuff if you have any mental health problems, feel lonely, etc this can ruin your life if you go off the deep end Matched Betting - You can make good money from this and I think everyone should do it, It's not complicated once you get the hang of it but don't use Profit Accumulator or the other one that charges £17 a month, in my opinion, it isn't worth it ... You could use something like Team Profit to get the hang of it and then take the £1 profit accumulator trial then get more info from there but cancel before the £17 month People promote PA because they have a good affiliate program Gambling CPA/RS This is different and you need a website or social media platform, You would have deals with the casinos, Bookmakers, etc But the money, if you get it right, is absolutely ridiculous... This is why you see these guys on youtube spinning such high amount of cash, If you are good at building sites or have a boatload of cash to chuck at this You would post them and when people sign up through your link you could be on CPA ( Cost per Acquisition ) RS= Revenue share, So you would get % of a player losses or you could be on a hybrid This money is life-changing if you get it right but since there is so much cash it is not easy... These sites are spending 10s of thousands a month to be at the top search results. ---- There is a lot of people on here that don't post their links on threads and I don't know why Trading212 (£3-£80 bonus) | non-ref ( no bonus ) Sign up and Verify your account, Then deposit £1 and you will get a free random share between £3-£80 the sign-ups have come from that thread, I have had 3 sign-ups and got £45, This is why you should your links in these threads.( I don't post it anywhere else ) Post it in HERE ---- Cashback Websites JoinHoney | non-ref - Saves you money by searching for coupon codes, I place a monthly order on a website and it saves me between 20-40 each time, Well worth installing when you shop online TopCashBack (£5 Bonus ) | nonref ( No Bonus ) £5 Bonus once you reach £10 payable cashback, I listed some good deals at the top of the post ( Check yourself for more on the site ) Also can save money when shopping online Quidco (£10 Bonus) |non-ref ( No bonus ) You get the £10 bonus once you reach £5 cashback, Same as top cashback... Some offers listed above and you can also get cashback shopping online -- My favorite Offer Xendpay (£10 Bonus | non-ref( No bonus ) Sign up and Verify your account, Make a transfer of £100 and you will get £10 free.. You can just transfer the money to yourself but you will need an account that takes euros as you need to send £ to euro - Before you sign up to an offer on this sub, Please check on cashback sites to see if they pay more than a ref link, Example is the Azimo link it has been posted on this sub on the past few days, You only get £10 from that but you will get £25 through Quidco + £10 bonus if you are new to the site Things I would avoid Rebate Websites, Lazybucks (They use your personal Facebook and run ads) There is also a scam that's posted a lot on Reddit, They claim to pay you $25 to sign up then $25 per person you sign up, This is a scam they go by a few different names sites all look the same with the same fake payouts I hope this helps someone out.
DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way. The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further. I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half. Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons. At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50. No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state. Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
DKNG has gained a lot the week of May 24 2020, mostly focused on May 26 (Tues) and May 28 (Thurs). Both days saw intraday spikes on sports-world news. On May 26 afternoon, a presser with Gary Bettman was announced, and on May 28, it was announced that the Premier League would return in June. Oddly, the stock did not drop at all, after Bettman’s announcement turned out to just be an expanded playoff format, and nothing about a return to the ice. The Premier League news didn’t impact other sports betting stocks either. Both events clearly imply that DKNG’ stock is hugely overpriced, but it’s being driven up just by trading. I’m not affiliated with DKNG in any way. The company’s lousy Q1 earnings was quite the spin job, and I was shocked to see the stock rise that day! Growth in marketing expenses can be written off as entering new states, but no growth in net revenue, despite 30% growth in gross revenue, means that the company can’t actually grow. In other words, almost all revenue was grown by offering free bets and reducing vigorish. Let’s examine revenue growth further. I was stunned that the company led with “30% revenue growth” when, in fact, that was only at Old DKNG, which constitutes 75% of New DKNG revenue. SBTech makes up the rest and grew at only 3%, giving the public company a 23% growth rate for the quarter, not the 30% spin job. DKNG might’ve unintentionally unveiled COVID19’s impact. At Old DKNG, they noted 60% growth through March 10th. If we assume that each day through the quarter is equal, that means the last 21 days of the quarter would have been down 70% vs Q1 ’19!!! This difference is hefty! But we know not all days are created equal in the world of sports, and Q1 included 5 NFL playoff days and the Super Bowl. If we assume NFL betting days are 3x a normal day and the Super Bowl is 3x a normal NFL day, revenue post-March 10th will drop 95%. Similarly, because SBTech’s dropped from +19% to only +3%, revenue post-COVID19 will drop at least by half. Also examine how they pitched themselves when the merger was announced in Dec. 2019. On slide 22, DKNG compare their valuation to competitors’, trying to show that the valuation is fair, probably trying to counter DKNG’s valuation that was4x what Paddy Power paid for FanDuel 18 months earlier. Let’s ignore the “EV / 2021E Revenue – Growth Adjusted” multiple that they highlight, because it’s completely unreliable to adjust a forward looking multiple based on your own forward-looking growth projections. Instead look at EV / TTM 3/31 Revenue for those same comparisons. At $39 per share, DKNG has a market cap over $15 billion on TTM revenue of $451 million. So their revenue multiple is 33.7x, which is too overvalued! The “High Growth Consumer Internet” category that they selected is at 8.1x and “EU Sportsbook Operators” at 3.6x. Their best competitor is Flutter, which is Paddy Power + Fanduel + Stars, and it trades at 7.8x. DKNG deserves a higher multiple than Flutter because DKNG is pure-play USA, and Flutter earns retail European revenue that isn’t high growth. But the two companies currently have the same market cap, despite FanDuel competing directly with DKNG with more market share in the fast growing business segments. Even if you are generous to DKNG and believe they should trade at a 50% premium to Flutter, DKNG’s share price ought be just $13.50. No, this isn’t about more states allowing sports betting. Let’s examine what must happen at the state level to value DKNG’s current valuation reasonably. In their December investor presentation, DKNG estimates their sports book net revenue at $2.3B given 25% market share and 65% of the US having online betting, with a 22% allowance for promos from Gross to Net. Consider their $4.5 billion of gross revenue at 100% of the population. Let’s bump that by 30% bump for iGaming. DKNG’s current $15 billion valuation and the same 50% premium to Flutter’s revenue multiple above (11.7x), mean that DKNG need $1.28B of revenue, or $831M more than they currently have. $831M more revenue needed means 14% more of the population must legalize in the very short term. Of the big five states, CA, TX, FL, NY and PA, none will add any population, because PA is already online, NY chose retail-only and researchers and lobbyists don’t think the other three will legalize for another 5 years. The remaining 46 states, including DC, average 1.3% of the population each, meaning you need a windfall of states to add 14% of the population. Forget nationally legalized sports betting, because no one is even pushing for that and it won’t happen. SCOTUS invalidated PASPA to remove the Federal Government’s ability to make national decisions like (dis)allowing sports betting. Sports betting will roll out throughout the US, but will slog state-by-state. Now that DKNG’s stock has rocketed, DKNA’s management has two good strategies, like TSLA did when TSLA's stock price rocketed in Jan 2020.
The first is obvious: follow-on equity offering. In going public via a reverse merger with a SPAC, DKNG barely tapped the big institutional investors. This follow-on can add cash to the balance sheet. If you watched TV in 2015, you know DKNG love to spend money on ads, at a very attractive valuation for the company. What’s the problem? New shares, or if the follow-on prices poorly, can lower the current share price.
The less obvious option is to buy a competitor, William Hill, that has a market cap of about $1.5B. They have a huge footprint in Europe, a market that DKNG previously tried and failed to enter. Europe threatens DKNG’ DTC approach in the US, and Europe has the IT that powers much of the land-based casinos’ sportsbook operations in the US. DKNG could buy them with their cheap stock, or issue new equity to raise money for the acquisition. DKNG would add much revenue, can cut lots of duplicated costs, diversify across countries and sports to temper their seasonality, and replace William Hill’s outdated tech with DKNG’s better apps. The downside is that these two companies’ CEOs dislike each other.
What’s one reason the stock has risen so much since the “IPO”? Because DKNG has a teensy number of liquid shares. Remember this wasn’t an IPO at all, it was a reverse merger with a SPAC, so a much higher percentage of outstanding shares are currently locked up than in a typical IPO. That constraint on supply with big retail demand could boost the stock price! I’ll summarize the 3 cases for DKNG.
Short term bull: Sports come back, stock (irrationally) trades up on it.
Short term bear: Stock price corrects to a more realistic valuation. Bulls take gains. Any of NHL, NBA, MLB announce they won’t play again in 2020. Company decides on more financial maneuvering.
Long term bear: Q2 or Q3 earnings disappoint. The NFL cash cow drops or NBA or NHL ‘20-’21 season gets delayed. Lockup ends in October 2020.
Despite Overwhelming Evidence that Mobile Sports Betting is the Future, States Continue to Pass Legislation Without Option
19 states have passed sports betting legislation (14 are live). By the end of 2020, Jake Williams, VP of Legal and Regulatory Affairs, Sportradar U.S. (the leading data supplier in the domestic betting market), expects that figure to climb into “the mid-twenties.” Surprisingly, at least to those who are aware that +/- 80% of all sports betting takes place on mobile devices, only +/- 68% of the states that have passed legislation to date included online or mobile wagering in the bill. Those who failed to do so are leaving revenues on the table. Howie Long-Short: One reason that such a large percentage of states are passing legislation without an online or mobile component is in the U.S. “gaming [licenses] are tied to physical locations." The overwhelming desire to “bring people into those facilities” has resulted in several states deciding they would only permit sportsbooks within brick and mortar properties. “The industry has quickly learned [a casino] isn’t going to bring that many more people to the facility [with the presence of a sportsbook].” Instead, Williams says local gaming operators should consider lobbying “to introduce new online and mobile products, [which would allow them to] generate revenues and then try to drive those new customers to a physical location. The audience who bets online or through a mobile app isn’t necessarily interested in going to a casino or retail sportsbook. [Operators] can capture far more of the market [if they have an online and mobile options available].” ADVERTISEMENTSCROLL TO CONTINUE READING It’s important to note that even in states with online and mobile sports betting “there is a spectrum of how successful the roll-out can or will be.” States that fail to support an open and competitive marketplace, limit the locations where mobile bets can be placed (see: geo-fencing) or require in-person registration are going to generate less revenue. New Jersey - which has 20+ skins and is generating +/- 88% of its sports betting revenues through mobile applications - is considered the model to follow. The one mistake New Jersey made was preventing bettors from wagering on collegiate teams located in the state. Williams says “it’s not better from an integrity perspective, it just forces those who want to bet on Seton Hall or Rutgers to drive to PA, bet with their local bookie or bet off-shore.” The rigidness of the legislation prevents state regulators from correcting the wrong. As the U.S. sports betting industry matures, in-play betting will become more prominent. With that transition will come an increase in “transaction volume” and in the amounts wagered. Williams expects - based on international trends and the direction the world is heading - that “80% of all-bets will [eventually] be in-play.” How soon remains to be seen (though, a decade seems reasonable), with most companies currently focused on offering core products that their customers are familiar with. That's because “some of the platforms that the online or mobile products were built on were developed many years ago. They weren’t designed to handle the dynamic and time sensitive requirements of the U.S. market in 2020, which for a large operator means launching multiple sportsbooks in multiple states, keeping the product on the cutting edge of innovation (because there is stiff competition) and doing it without knowing [what is coming down the pike].” Software and bandwidth concerns aside, Williams believes that the industry needs to invest in educating the public that in-play betting is a possibility for it to become more prominent. To that end, Sportradar is meeting with lawmakers and regulators across the country to ensure that they understand the entire anatomy of sports betting, including the potential of in-play (along with how data is used and integrity monitoring). “Even though there has been sports betting in Nevada for a while, most people don’t fully understand that they can bet during the game. Once that becomes part of the culture, in-game betting will take off and that is when teams and leagues will begin to achieve their goals related to driving engagement.” SBJ recently noted that online sports betting has yet to impact the NFL's television ratings. Fan Marino: If sports betting is operational in 25+ states come early 2021, Williams indicated that last Sunday's Super Bowl would be the last without national commercials for gaming operators. “You are going to be hard pressed to find a CMO [of a multi-state operator] who wouldn’t be very interested in [a Super Bowl commercial]. Certainly there are companies with big budgets, that want to make some form of a splash. I don’t think it is crazy to think it could occur [next year].” Editor Note: Please note that joining our community (si.com/johnwallstreet) will entitle you to receive our free daily email newsletter.
Seeking advice: Playing 1/2NL live and getting killed
-Text wall incoming- TL;DR: I am terrible at playing live, is there any print or resources you used when learning the game you suggest using, other than simply playing more and always studying? Hey everyone, i’m new here and i fucking suck at live poker, but I want to get better. I’ve been playing 1/2NL for the last 3 days at my local casino and have just been getting crushed. This is playing ridiculously tight, too. Over 3 days i’ve lost about $800 and am taking a step back to learn what the fuck i’m so terrible at. I won’t say ‘know’ here because i obviously don’t know and have a ton to learn, but i am ‘aware’ of how to play in position. i’m aware of what my opponents ranges should be when raising from their different positions, and in general I play premium hands or the nuts on the flop. I realize this is a massively exploitable strategy, but I’m still just getting killed and stacked so frequently and not even being loose with my money. I think this is a huge part of it, honestly, and am looking for some confirmation — My concern over my money massively influences my decisions. I’m now realizing if I had $2000-3000 i could throw into my live sessions for multiple buyins, i could learn a ton without necessarily playing looser, just having the confidence that i’m not throwing away my bankroll, which actually matters to me. My main questions here are: 1) how big of a problem is worrying about your stack? should i legitimately not play 1/2NL live unless i’m comfortable throwing $1000 at it and not caring? 2) are there any resources or print you used when learning poker? Playing online is a weird option for me...I play online on the WSOP app, but it’s not with real money, it’s their chips. so even playing tight it doesn’t reflect how I am playing live. I can’t get on to a site to actually play in like micro-stakes etc because i’m in PA. I’m getting my ass beat, but I’m fascinated by poker. I want to learn more. I’ve been living and breathing poker strategy, videos, print, and more these last two weeks, and I need to figure out a way to put it all together. I apologize for this extremely long post, I’m just trying to put into words my feelings and thoughts over the last few days playing live for the first time.
Online Casino PA is just the first step for the Live! brand, as they will look to add their name to the PA legal sportsbook offerings at some point in the future. Assuming the PlayLive! online casino goes well, expect a PlayLive! online sportsbook to follow, which would be the 10th sportsbook available online in the state of Pennsylvania. PokerStars is partnered in PA with Mount Airy Casino near the Poconos, and launched its online casino operation in November 2019. The site, which is mainly known for poker, also offers a nice mix of traditional online casino games on dedicated iOS and Android apps, including slots, table games, video poker and more. It launched with 43 slot titles, four roulette games and one blackjack game. Interestingly, the online casino launched without a mobile app, so it’s only accessible via desktop or mobile web browser. PokerStars Casino. On Nov. 4, PokerStars Casino became the first PA online casino to launch since July. The PokerStars Casino is available within the PokerStars client as well as available as an app for download for both iOS and Android. More PA Online Casinos on the way. In the brief reviews below, you can learn what these mobile casino apps have to offer, what bonus deals are currently available, and what types of games you will find when you visit the casino sites. PA online casino apps While all Pennsylvania online casinos are available via web-based browsers on your laptop or desktop, nearly all are also accessible on mobile devices as an online casino app . These Android and iOS (Apple) apps are free to download and in many respects feature the same functionality as the web-based versions of the online casino. On May 1, DraftKings added an online casino product to its established online sportbook. Its online casino product is under the Hollywood Casino license, while the DraftKings sportsbook partners with Penn’s other PA property, The Meadows. Both FanDuel and DraftKings later debuted standalone online casino apps in June and July, respectively. The debut made Parx Online Casino the second legal mobile casino to go live in the state. Much like its retail counterpart, Parx Online Casino offers one of the biggest selections of games among Pennsylvania’s online casino platforms. Top 3 PA Online Casinos By Gross Revenue There are now nine online casino apps in PA. These are legal, regulated online casinos from popular brand names such as DraftKings, MGM, Unibet, and BetRivers. In this post we help you decide which is best. Our top recommended PA online casino is Unibet PA (get $10 free + $500 deposit match right here). It offers the most robust selection of online slots, a modern app, and a range of table games and video poker. The first of the online sportsbooks to launch, PlaySugarHouse Pennsylvania has an integrated online casino and sportsbook. The PA online casino uses the proprietary Rush Street Interactive platform. PlaySugarHouse.com PA is available as an integrated Android app that users can download directly from the site. If you want to access the site on an iPhone, you can do so via your browser, but first, you have to download and enable the third-party GeoGuard app from GeoComply. PA casino apps. With Pennsylvania moving into the online casino space, there are a few points about using these programs that bear mention. First and foremost, it’s important to know that each casino app will figure out what device you’re using automatically. So, whether you use a laptop or a mobile device, the app will size the casino to fit your screen. For the most part, every online